vlo

+10 vlo (put options) @ .60 = $600

Last update update

Interesting results, not very happy overall. But its what is. I sold:

-10 GOOG 460 Put @ 20.10 = $20075.05


-10 QQQQ 45 Put (expiring worthless)

-10 FCX 95 Put (expiring worthless)
-10 FCX 90 Put (expiring worthless)

So after what I spent in the previous post, and what I made back from GOOG, I lost 15% on that group of trades. My feeling was telling me one thing, and reality went another way. Looking back on it, I do not feel that I could have made any other call. Today however, we are in a different market, and those 3 stocks are acting very differently. I have been playing quite a bit more poker and less stock. I keep up with it, but I havent traded in recent days.

Be Well.

Update

At 12 minutes before close:

+10 GOOG 460 Put @ 16.85 = $16,874.95
+10 QQQQ 45 Put @ .77 = $794.95

+10 FCX 95 Put @ 3.48 = $3504.95
+10 FCX 90 Put @ 1.81 = $1834.95

Total: $23,009.80

March: Poker

I am not certain that I ever outlined on this blog what the team would be doing in poker over the past month. The overall idea (outlined in emails) was to play the lowest limits of cash tables on the internet to build confidence as well as to teach ourselves a better way to approach each session. There were specific rules and concepts that I do not feel like going over here, but if anyone is curious you can email me and I will be glad to go over it. So I will now post the results for the past month:

		Ben	Sam	Andy	MaryBeth
Date		ROI %
03/01/08		Off	Off
03/02/08		Off	Off
03/03/08		13	46
03/04/08		26	112
03/05/08		158	54
03/06/08		7	Off
03/07/08		0	65
03/08/08		Off	-47
03/09/08		-33	-11
03/10/08		-14	Off
03/11/08		2	46
03/12/08		8	4
03/13/08		20	Off
03/14/08		Off	12
03/15/08		-19	Off
03/16/08		30	Off
03/17/08		20	20
03/18/08		-12	18
03/19/08		95	Off
03/20/08		13	Off
03/21/08		16 and 30	Off
03/22/08		Off	58
03/23/08		1	Off
03/24/08		51	63
03/25/08		19	Off
03/26/08		56	34
03/27/08		18	Off
03/28/08		67	93
03/29/08		-19	Off
03/30/08		Off	Off
03/31/08		27	22
Average		21	36

One interesting point is that I played over 10,000 hands this month, while Sam played around 1,000 hands. I was also playing 3-4 tables (NL Texas Holdem), while he was playing 2 tables (PL Omaha). All of my sessions were relatively stress free and within the new structure I find it is much easier to identify 'tilt' or 'poor play' than before. I will probably update this with numbers for Andy and MB, as well as some overall thoughts, but for now thats it.

Be Well.

Long time no trade

In the interest of honesty I must point out that my last +10 FCX contracts were a complete wash. The next morning the stock opened down about 7% and that was enough to wipe out my position since I had only 1 day left before the option expired. So instead of a 15% gain, I had about a 15% loss. I liked the position, and the learning was worth it.

Since that time, I have seen no entries that I felt strongly about. So I continue to wait.

Thank you Bear Stearns

I guess the important thing is to always see what is, rather than what we want to be. So with the nice market drop on the news of the BSC debacle (read crash, destruction, collapse) it seemed a good time to enter a few more FCX swings. The stock did not rebound as quickly as I expected, but I felt very confident I could add positions throughout the day.

+1o FCX 95 call @ 4.90 = $4924.95 (about 10 central time)
+1o FCX 95 call @ 4.00 = $4024.95 (about 12 central time)
+1o FCX 95 call @ 3.25 = $3274.95 (about 2 central time)
+1o FCX 95 call @ 2.75 = $2774.95 (about 3 central time or 15 min bfr close)

So yeah, I had a little invested. Point is, when you believe your position is correct I think you should back it up, and then learn the lesson either way.

Then today we have a nice gap up (I suppose thank you fed is in order, but thats just wrong):

-1o FCX 95 call @ 4.07 = $4045.05 (at open)
-1o FCX 95 call @ 4.10 = $4075.05 (at open)
-1o FCX 95 call @ 5.00 = $4975.05 (about 10 central time)

The final 10 contracts I decided to hold until open tomorrow. I feel that my line is correct and even though I am sitting at a 15% gain at the moment it seems wise to hold until tomorrow. That is all for now, good luck all.

Guess I was wrong...

I had to wait overnight to exit my position:

-1o FCX 100 call @ 2.75 = $2725.05 +41%

Yawn. Now I have to leave for my 'real' job.

Raining in Texas

Well as the rain once again comes down for the day, I have entered another position with FCX. At 12.30 central time:

+1o FCX 100 call @ 1.90 = $1924.95

I am thinking that I could exit this position today, so we shall see.

Rough around the edges

So I realize that trading this way may not be advisable. Some people might even think that the fundamentals are better, or that at some point I might stop 'picking' correctly. The thing of it is though, what I am doing here is just an extension of education I have recieved playing poker. In poker I watch 'flow', 'patterns', 'swings', or whatever you want to call it. Simply observe what is, then use it to your advantage. Since I have no particular strategy in mind, I have nothing to defend, nothing to desire, nothing I want to see when I look at the market. Enter:

-10 FCX 100 call @ 5.07 = $5045.05 +25%

Simplicity is the way of it.

Tuesday Swing

Cant ingore the nice swing that FCX has taken today. As of 2:00 central time I have picked up:

+10 FCX 100 call @ 4.00 = $4024.95

Overall it seems obvious that tech is still in a freefall. GOOG for 400 anyone?

Observe?

Not sure how things are going to go this week. The news is looking all bearish. Oil is heading towards 100 again on the Turkish invasion of northern Iraq. God I love how slow people are to read... Is it just me or did the market completely ignore this news Friday? Then we have spending and inflation data. All this leads me to believe I might get a nice little move at some point Monday. Although I still have not decided to enter at open or wait till the last hour of trading as is my habit.

Stay tuned.

***EDIT***

After much deliberation I decided to err on the side of action, so as the market opened I entered three positions.

+10 FCX 100 call @ 4.68 = $4704.95

+10 QQQQ 43 put @ .86 = $884.95
+10 GOOG 490 put @ 12.90 = $12,924.95

I entered my exits before I left, slightly more conservative than usual but with the irregularity of the trends I have observed it seemed prudent. Oddly enough, most of the market was not bearish as I stated at the top. Go figure.

-10 FCX 100 call @5.20 = $5175.05

-10 QQQQ 43 put @ 1.06 = $1035.05
-10 GOOG 490 put @ 14.00 = $13,975.05

FCX +10%
QQQQ +16%
GOOG +8%

Ship it: Part 2

So Wednesday I finally pulled the trigger on FCX. Since I have followed the stock, I have noticed that on a majority of occasions it matches swings with the price of oil. So even though it had been up for at least a week, all signs were pointing to oil hitting 100 again and possibly staying there. So I after hours I entered both my entry and exit point:

+10 FCX 100 call @ 5.15 = $5125.05

-10 FCX 100 call @ 6.30 = $6275.05

Interesting situation occurred then, I bought at close Wednesday and then Thursday FCX gapped up past my entry and sold at 6.30. For a second the newbie in me was worried, then I realized my position was sound and the stock does swing pretty good. This was followed by news that there was plenty of oil and FCX followed suit as oil moved back under 100. So basically the trade worked backwards.

FCX +22%
QQQQ +22%
RIMM +22%
AAPL +33%

GOOG (still in, with only a 9% loss so far... but I am going to stick it out a few more days) Not sure, but I think 4 out of 5 is a decent week. Have a good weekend all!

Ship it

So I decided to exit my high entry of the Q's. So before I left for work (before the market open) I sold my 1.26 position for a loss of rake X 2. I entered a buy at 1.10 (which filled at 1.08) thank you Thinkorswim, and a new sell at 1.38 as well as sells orders for all my positions. So...

+10 QQQQ 44 call @ 1.08 = $1104.95

Upon returning home I found?

-10 QQQQ 44 call @ 1.38 = $1355.05 +22%
-10 RIMM 93.375 call @ 6.60 = $6575.05 +22%

Keep in mind the rake is $24.95 per trade which I have already deducted. So ship it. With oil moving up again I am not entirely certain that I will be able to get the rest of my trades to act as favorably, but lets just wait and see.

**EDIT**

AAPL did well after hours and gapped up, and I opened up Thinkorswim to find:

-10 AAPL 125 call @ 6.72 = $6695.05 +33%

Holding patterns

I must admit that my 'strangle' paper trades did not show a profit. They did perform very will in that I have more questions surrounding how to successfully make such a trade. I will be making experimenting more in the future, but not currently due to the fact that I am looking for a different stock as well as a clearly defined exit.

I came upon the idea of 'contrarian investing'. Basically the premise that the crowd is almost always wrong around major turning points in the market. Warren Buffett was quoted as saying, "Be brave when others are afraid, and afraid when others are brave." This has to the be the most interesting thing I have read to date about investing. It makes no sense to be doing what everyone else is doing, if this were the case, no one would ever make any money! I understand that a man must listen to logic and reason, at the same time however, most of the accomplishments that moved mankind forward were times in which he ignored said logic and reason.

Obviously I am a complete novice at trading, and I would argue vehemently that paper trading is COMPLETELY different than trading with real money. But it here in the beginning of my market education, I notice that I have the tendency to observe market movements and 'know' that what I am seeing doesnt make sense and just 'naturally' take the other side of it. I guess that is what me posting here is all about. If I look back once 2008 is complete and see that I was not profitable then perhaps it will be time to reconsider putting real money into play. Even then that is a somewhat results driven definition of success. If I learn something about myself and the market during this year, in my humble (albeit broke) opinion , I will have achieved the success I was looking for.

If you are still reading, good for you. Today there was a (in my mind) huge sell off that seemed to based off oil going over 100. Good for oil. But for the first time this year, it seemed like the perfect opportunity to be speculating towards the upside. Without further ado:

+10 AAPL 125 call @ 5.00 = $5024.95
+10 RIMM 93.375 call @ 5.35 = $5374.95
+10 QQQQ 44 call @ 1.26 = $1284.95

christmas wish list:

+10 GOOG 510 call @ 20.40 = $20,424.95
+10 BIDU 250 call @ 17.80 = $17,724.95

All of these came within 15 minutes of close. I should also point out the first time I looked at the Q's 10 minutes before I bought the price was 1.11 so I would have made a nice 22% swing in that 10 minute window. I am also watching FCX like a hawk again, for reasons I cant quite figure out I love this stock.

In poker news, after months of an overall lack of direction from the team, I finally started acting like the leader I supposedly am. Everyone has been put on a 10 day hiatus with no poker whatsoever. After this we will meet up and I will outline the plan of action for the following 30 days. It will be interesting to see how we all adjust to a bit more structure.

That is all for now, everyone be well.

Options without intelligence

Well after holding my puts for roughly a week I began to get panicky. I still have not learned to enter a sell order for the exit I want and walk away. So on Feb. 5th (Tuesday) I sold most of my positions at break even prices. The one shining performer was YHOO that I had dumped a few days earlier for a nice profit.

On 1/31/08 I picked up 2 extra positions:

+10 RIMM 90 put @ 3.85 = $3850 + 24.95 = $3874.95
+10 QQQQ 44 put @ .79 = $790 + 24.95 = $814.95

And sold:

-10 YHOO 20 put @ 1.50 =$1500 - 24.95 = $1475.05
(wwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Then on 2/05/08 I exited my 4 remaining positions:

-20 RIMM 90 put @ 4.35 = $8700 - 39.95 = $8660.05
(my combined position was $8249.9 so I profited $410.15 bleh)

-10 QQQQ 44 put @ 1.05 = $1005 - 24.95 = $980.05
-10 QQQQ 44 put @ 1.20 = $1200 - 24.95 = $1175.05
(my combined position was $2039.90 so I profited $115.20 bleh)

So if you are still reading the score on my positional trades read something like:

RIMM +4%
QQQQ +5%
YHOO +47%

As of 10:35 central time, the market took a huge swing down today so I may be able to exit my 'long strangle' positions soon. This is enough writing for now, I will update on my poker experiments soon. Be well everyone.

Strangle Update

Friday the 25th was an interesting start to my 'long strangle'. RIMM opened the day by gapping up to almost 100 and then sliding down all day to close near 90. So had I chosen to close my positions, I would have made a 50% profit on my call, and then around a 20% profit on my put for a combined profit of 70%. Pretty remarkable swings if you ask me. I still am uncertain if I need to go ahead and enter an order on both sides for 100% so that I am covered, or if I can take 50% per side and run with it.

In other news, I seem to be the only person in the world bearish going into tomorrow. The market went up all day (Monday) and everyone I read or listened to seem to think the rate cut is a reason to ignore the GREAT housing numbers that came out. And I could be wrong, but I was under the impression everyone already knew about the rate cut, so why exactly did everyone wait until today for it to make a difference?

Sooooo, long story short. I bought puts. I love it, and I will take my medicine like a man if I am wrong. Here are the details.

+10 RIMM ~ 90 strike put @ 4.35 = $4350 + $24.95 = $4374.95 total
+10 QQQQ ~ 44 strike put @ 1.20 = $1200 + $24.95 = $1224.95 total
+10 YHOO ~ 20 strike put @ 1.00 = $1000 + $24.95 = $1024.95 total

All are current month (ex. Feb 08 exp) unless otherwise noted. I thought long and hard about Bidu, but I really wanted it to get back to 300 before I opened a position. I missed it in the morning for the short time it was there, and could never convince myself I liked 293. So there we are.

Wish everyone out there the best, have a good day.

Stock Option Research

So today I began research on an options trade called a 'long strangle'. Hopefully this refers to the position of my trade and not the position I end up in. So with a fairly basic overview of a daily RIMM chart (using the thinkorswim software) it seemed that this would be a good stock to try the trade on. I tend to stick with well known stocks, but I also look for big swings that are fairly consistent.

So with about 15 minutes to close, the stock had opened at 89.96 and was up to 94.53, and here are the details...

Bought +10 RIMM (feb 08 exp) 95 strike call @ $5.65 = $5650 + $24.95 = $5674.95 total
Bought +10 RIMM (feb 08 exp) 90 strike put @ $3.80 = $3800 + $24.95 = $3824.95 total

My overall goal is generally a 20-30% profit overall, but since I have zero experience with the 'long strangle', I really have no idea what to expect. I am not entirely sure what to do if one side of the position profits, but not enough to cover the other side. With the volatility that has become common in the last few months, I am very curious what exit strategies will emerge.

Since I am very new to this, I would enjoy hearing any thoughts, opinions, or experience on the subject of the 'long strangle'.